2024 Presidential Prediction 538.  — 538's forecast for the 2024 presidential election has moved very little since the first debate.  — updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

 — an updating average of 2024 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency.  — can it win him votes?