2024 Recession Indicatorspot. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, triggering the sahm rule, an indicator that—when applied to historical data—has accurately signaled nearly every. A recession signal is triggered when it rises by at least 0.4 percentage points from that moving average's prior cyclical low.

Here’s when a recession could arrive —. Here’s how to assess the health of the economy and what to do when the news is bad.